Search results for "ETAS model"
showing 10 items of 13 documents
Hybrid kernel estimates of space-time earthquake occurrence rates using the Etas model
2010
The following steps are suggested for smoothing the occurrence patterns in a clustered space–time process, in particular the data from an earthquake catalogue. First, the original data is fitted by a temporal version of the ETAS model, and the occurrence times are transformed by using the cumulative form of the fitted ETAS model. Then the transformed data (transformed times and original locations) is smoothed by a space–time kernel with bandwidth obtained by optimizing a naive likelihood cross-validation. Finally, the estimated intensity for the original data is obtained by back-transforming the estimated intensity for the transformed data. This technique is used to estimate the intensity f…
An Analysis of Earthquakes Clustering Based on a Second-Order Diagnostic Approach
2009
A diagnostic method for space–time point process is here introduced and applied to seismic data of a fixed area of Japan. Nonparametric methods are used to estimate the intensity function of a particular space–time point process and on the basis of the proposed diagnostic method, second-order features of data are analyzed: this approach seems to be useful to interpret space–time variations of the observed seismic activity and to focus on its clustering features.
Alternated estimation in semi-parametric space-time branching-type point processes with application to seismic catalogs
2014
An estimation approach for the semi-param-etric intensity function of a class of space-time point processes is introduced. In particular we want to account for the estimation of parametric and nonparametric components simultaneously, applying a forward predictive likelihood to semi-parametric models. For each event, the probability of being a background event or an offspring is therefore estimated.
Comparison between nonparametric and parametric estimate of the conditional intensity function of a seismic space-time point process
2008
A seismic gap can be defined as a segment of an active geologic fault that has not produced seismic events for an unusually long time; gaps are often considered susceptible to future strong earthquakes occurrence and therefore their identification may be useful for predictive purposes. In this paper we try to identify gaps in an area of South Tyrrhenian Sea by comparing the observed seismicity, estimated by nonparametric method, and the theoretical one, described by a particular space-time point process (ETAS model).
FLP estimation of semi-parametric models for space-time point processes and diagnostic tools
2015
Abstract The conditional intensity function of a space–time branching model is defined by the sum of two main components: the long-run term intensity and short-run term one. Their simultaneous estimation is a complex issue that usually requires the use of hard computational techniques. This paper deals with a new mixed estimation approach for a particular space–time branching model, the Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence model. This approach uses a simultaneous estimation of the different model components, alternating a parametric step for estimating the induced component by Maximum Likelihood and a non-parametric estimation step, for the background intensity, by FLP (Forward Predictive Like…
Second-order diagnostics for space-time point processes with application to seismic events
2008
A diagnostic method for space-time point process is introduced and used to interpret and assess the goodness of fit of particular models to real data such as the seismic ones. The proposed method is founded on the definition of a weighted process and allows to detect second-order features of data, like long-range dependence and fractal behavior, that are not accounted for by the fitted model. Applications to earthquake data are provided. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Including covariates in a space-time point process with application to seismicity
2020
AbstractThe paper proposes a spatio-temporal process that improves the assessment of events in space and time, considering a contagion model (branching process) within a regression-like framework to take covariates into account. The proposed approach develops the forward likelihood for prediction method for estimating the ETAS model, including covariates in the model specification of the epidemic component. A simulation study is carried out for analysing the misspecification model effect under several scenarios. Also an application to the Italian seismic catalogue is reported, together with the reference to the developed R package.
Windowed Etas Models With Application To The Chilean Seismic Catalogs
2015
Abstract The seismicity in Chile is estimated using an ETAS (Epidemic Type Aftershock sequences) space–time point process through a semi-parametric technique to account for the estimation of parametric and nonparametric components simultaneously. The two components account for triggered and background seismicity respectively, and are estimated by alternating a ML estimation for the parametric part and a forward predictive likelihood technique for the nonparametric one. Given the geographic and seismological characteristics of Chile, the sensitivity of the technique with respect to different geographical areas is examined in overlapping successive windows with varying latitude. A different b…
ETAS Space–Time Modeling of Chile Triggered Seismicity Using Covariates: Some Preliminary Results
2021
Chilean seismic activity is one of the strongest in the world. As already shown in previous papers, seismic activity can be usefully described by a space–time branching process, such as the ETAS (Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequences) model, which is a semiparametric model with a large time-scale component for the background seismicity and a small time-scale component for the triggered seismicity. The use of covariates can improve the description of triggered seismicity in the ETAS model, so in this paper, we study the Chilean seismicity separately for the North and South area, using some GPS-related data observed together with ordinary catalog data. Our results show evidence that the use of s…
An algorithm for earthquakes clustering based on maximum likelihood
2007
In this paper we propose a clustering technique set up to separate and find out the two main components of seismicity: the background seismicity and the triggered one. We suppose that a seismic catalogue is the realization of a non homogeneous space-time Poisson clustered process, with a different parametrization for the intensity function of the Poisson-type component and of the clustered (triggered) component. The method here proposed assigns each earthquake to the cluster of earthquakes, or to the set of independent events, according to the increment to the likelihood function, computed using the conditional intensity function estimated by maximum likelihood methods and iteratively chang…